Abstract
The main objective of this study is to develop a highly predictive model to forecast Turkey’s energy consumption. The model has developed based on regression functions and Jaya algorithm which is a new and powerful optimization algorithm. Linear, exponential, hyperbolic and quadratic functions were used as regression functions. Gross domestic product, population, import and export data have been used as independent variables in the model. The accuracy of Jaya method was investigated using error criteria such as average relative error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the quadratic function developed with Jaya algorithm performed better than the others. After the optimal configurations have been defined, a scenario has been developed to estimate Turkey's future energy consumption values. The obtained results are compared with the previous studies. According to the obtained results, primary energy consumption of Turkey can be modeled using the proposed model and Jaya can be used to predict Turkey's future energy need.
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