Türkiye’de Aylık İşsizlik Oranlarının Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Öngörüsü

Abstract

Since the labor market contains human factors, unlike other markets, the economic policies that are implemented to stabilize the labor market cannot be effective alone, therefore, social and psychological factors also come into play. As of today, it is seen that the high unemployment rates appear to be increasing every day and become one of the main issues of Turkey's economy. Unemployment becomes prevalent especially in the younger population of Turkey, and individuals in the young age group are rendered advantageous since the burden of subsistence does not devolve upon most of them. Upon considering that the pressure and adverse conditions caused by unemployment may be different for each age group and the economic and social policies that are required to be developed against such necessity to be different in this context, it is quite crucial to forecast the unemployment rate, especially for different age groups.The aim of the study is constituted by the forecasting of the monthly unemployment rates in Turkey depending on age groups via artificial neural networks. In line with this purpose, based on official data obtained from the TSI by taking into account the monthly unemployment rates for the age groups over the period 2005-2019 as well as the general unemployment rates for the same period, the monthly unemployment rates for the year 2019 were forecasted using feed-forward and feed-back artificial neural network models. As a result of the study, it was revealed with both error criteria and some visual findings that the observed values for all age groups, overall monthly unemployment rates, and the forecasting by artificial neural networks (ANN) were quite close to each other.