Türkiye de Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin Yapısal Kırılma Testi İle Değerlendirilmesi (Evaluation of Individual Pension System in Turkey with the use of Structural Break Test)

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims at the effect of the state contribution application, which is one of the reforms made for the development of the private pension system in our country, on the system components in general to reveal the change in the development direction of the individual pension system before and after the state contribution application. Design/methodology/approach – This constitutes the research universe and pension companies operating in Turkey, 18 of the Pension Monitoring Center data they have transferred IBM SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) was used in the redesigned work environment prior to analysis. The research model was designed to reveal the structural difference before and after the state contribution, and the development model of the state contribution fund amount was created. In this direction, system components were examined by trend analysis from time series analysis and chow test from structural breakage tests. The artificial variable effect was also examined in terms of determining the source of the structural difference. Findings – By analyzing the system components using statistical analysis methods, it was determined that a structural difference occurred in the system with the state contribution application as a result of the analysis. Based on the findings obtained in this context, it is seen that the development tendency of the system is found to be stronger after application of the state contribution. Discussion – In this study, which aims to reveal the effectiveness of the state contribution application in terms of the development of the individual pension system. It is thought that the research is important in terms of the trends towards the sustainability and developability of the state contribution application.