Abstract
A mid-term analysis of shoreline evolution was carried out in the present paper for the Trigno river mouth area (5.2 km), located in the northern part of the Molise coast region (southeast Italy). The littoral drift rose (LDR) concept was employed, coupled to the GENESIS one-line model, to produce numerical simulations. The LDR graph was used to define a single, time-invariant, “equivalent wave” component (EW), which was supposed to entirely rule the shoreline changes. Given the inherent bimodality affecting the Molise wave climate, EW could result not significant in forecasting shoreline evolution, since both a climate inversion and a time-varying diffusion extra effect are expected. These aspects, never investigated in the literature, are deepened in the present paper, with the main aims of firstly assessing the explanatory power of the LDR equivalent wave and its significance within a bimodal climate, and secondly checking the role of a time-varying diffusivity. Results confirmed the reliability of the EW concept, even within a bimodal climate. Moreover, the possible effect of a time-varying diffusion, which is expected with a large directional variability, produced insignificant results with respect to the EW.
Highlights
The possible effect of a time-varying diffusion, which is expected with a large directional variability, produced insignificant results with respect to the equivalent wave” component (EW)
The graph showed a good prediction power of the equivalent wave, as it was able to account for about 90% of the total Trigno
Results showed that the littoral drift rose (LDR)-equivalent direction of 9◦ N was strongly correlated to the real shoreline trend, as it was able to account for about 90% of the total Trigno linear regression rate (LRR) variance, even if the relative mean square error (RMSE) index was relatively large
Summary
The 36 km long Molise coast faces the Adriatic Sea and lies between the Formale del Molino stream to the north and the Saccione stream to the south (Figure 1). Since the digitalization procedure produced a certain degree of uncertainty of 21 related to measurement errors of the shorelines, a significance analysis was carried 3out by [10] for the LRR function of the Molise coast, as briefly summarized below for the sake of clarity. Molise was recognizing obtained, recognizing areas affected by accretion or accretion erosion asorthose segments ofsegments coast where the shoreline change ratechange exceedsrate a significant erosion as those of coast where the shoreline certain limit value The latter was LIM exceeds a certain limit value (vLIM) and remains above it for a minimum length, lLIM. In the first 2 km, the reach is defended by a system of 11 groins, with an average length of 68 m and a mean spacing of 170 m
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
