Abstract

<p>Understanding shoreline evolution, and in particular, the consequences of shoreline erosion is a<br>major societal concern that threatens to become even more important in the future with the impacts<br>of climate change. Thus, it is necessary to improve both knowledge of the dominant physical processes<br>controlling medium to long-term shoreline evolution and the capabilities of morphological evolution<br>models to simulate beach changes at these spatial and temporal scales.<br>Empirical models may be an ideal choice for modelling complex and dynamic environments such as<br>sandy beaches at large spatial (beach) and long temporal (years to decades) scales. They reproduce<br>the effects of the main morphodynamical processes with low computational cost and relatively high<br>accuracy, in particular when high quality, long-term data are available for calibration.<br>Here, to broaden its range of application, a cross-shore equilibrium model, which has demon-<br>strated its accuracy and efficiency in reproducing shoreline and intertidal beach profile changes at<br>several micro and macrotidal beaches, is extended to couple it with a longshore beach evolution<br>modelling approach. The selection of a particular longshore model (based on a one-line approach),<br>and its implementation and validation with benchmark test cases of shoreline evolution caused by<br>the effects of diffusion, high angle wave instabilities, and coastal structures are presented.<br>The new hybrid model is applied at Narrabeen beach to reproduce the long-term evolution of<br>beach contours near the shoreline. The model is calibrated and tested using the 40-year timeseries of<br>monthly subaerial beach profile surveys conducted along 5 cross-shore profiles along the 3.6km-long<br>Narrabeen-Collaroy embayment. The novelty of the current work is to focus on reproducing changes<br>at different altitudes, with the objective of assessing the cross-shore variability of the longshore<br>sediment flux, which is assumed constant in most one-line longshore transport models. The coupled<br>model performance is discussed, and the results are compared to existing studies that have simulated<br>shoreline evolution at Narrabeen using other morphological change models.</p>

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