Triad forest management: Scenario analysis of forest zoning effects on timber and non-timber values in New Brunswick, Canada

Abstract

Triad forest management is a form of zoning under which land is allocated into extensively managed, intensively managed, and reserve zones, with management tailored in each zone such that all objectives are met collectively across the landbase. We evaluated the utility of triad management on the privately-owned, industrial, 190 000-ha Black Brook District in New Brunswick, Canada. Scenario planning was used to simulate effects of 64 allocation scenarios (0–15% reserve area, 39–64% intensively managed softwood, and 21–61% extensively managed) on forest species composition, age class distribution, timber growing stock, harvest levels, and old forest habitat. Softwood harvest in the short term (30 years) was insensitive to reserve and intensive management allocations but doubled in the long term as the intensive management zone was increased from 39% to 64%.Hardwood harvest was sensitive only to area in reserves, declining as the area allocated to reserves was increased. Abundance of old forest generally increased with the amount of reserve area, but varied by species composition. Management of this landbase is focused on timber production, and intensive management clearly provided major increases in timber yield. It also could permit setting aside additional reserve area; old mixedwood habitat in particular is in short supply. These were hypothetical scenarios, and the landowner is not necessarily pursuing any of modeled strategies. Although the range of desired values may differ on other landbases, a scenario analysis of alternative zoning is an effective means to select a management strategy. Key words: scenario planning, intensive forest management, reserves, extensive forest management, triad, land allocation, forest zoning