Trends on current and forecasted aircraft hybrid electric architectures and their impact on environment

Abstract

Climate change is the megatrend that will have the biggest impact on the development of sustainable air transportation in near future. Aviation is expected to triple its proportional share of a Paris compatible 1.5 °C budget, declared by UNFCCC Agreement for global temperature through 2050 under current international policies. Basket of measures proposed by ICAO to keep the temperature change under this limit, including aircraft technology (up to 25%) and operation improvement (up to 9%) for fuel burn reduction by engines and new revolutionary architectures of the aircraft, deployment of sustainable alternative fuels (over 40% of fuel burn reduction), market based measures (ICAO CORSIA) as pushing system for more quick and efficient implementation of the first three, etc. Pioneering sustainable technology is allowing the civil aviation sector to embrace the next generation of aviation through electrification and alternative fuel sources. Electric propulsion is proposed as one of the revolutionary technology changes in aviation, which should be assessed on possible contribution in reaching the climate change goal and one of the environmental goals of the EU strategic document Flightpath 2050. Existing potential and forecasted progress for More Electric Aircraft concept is showing quite limited reduction in fuel burn and emission. Full electric or hybrid propulsion may provide essential reduction, but in considered time frame it is looking to be very possible for implementation in groups of General Aviation, Urban Air Taxis and Regional Aircraft first of all. More than 90% of GHG emissions from global commercial aircraft operations are generated by Large Commercial Aircraft, so research to reduce commercial aircraft emissions will be most useful if it focuses on technology applicable to them.