Multi-scale RWKV with 2-dimensional temporal convolutional network for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting

Abstract

Improving the accuracy of Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial for optimizing the schedule of power stations and maintaining the grid stability. However, PV power generation exhibits complex periodicity and is significantly influenced by weather conditions, introducing instability, intermittency, and randomness, making accurate PV power forecasting a challenging task. Therefore, this study proposes a multi-scale Receptance Weighted Key Value with 2-Dimensional Temporal Convolutional Network (MSRWKV-2DTCN) for PV power forecasting, which can learn periodicity and interdependencies of data and improve forecasting accuracy. Firstly, the proposed model identifies multi-periodicity of PV power data with the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Subsequently, we combine these identified periods with the canonical time mixing block of Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV) and introduce a multi-scale time mixing block to learn periodicity of data. Finally, to explore complex interdependencies of historical data, we replace the channel-mixing block of RWKV with a multi-scale 2-Dimensional Temporal Convolutional Network (2D TCN). Experiments were conducted on real-world datasets collected from Yulara solar system in Australia to validate the performance of the proposed model. Comparisons with other PV power forecasting models and ablation studies confirm that the MSRWKV-2DTCN achieves higher accuracy in short-term PV power forecasting.