Trends in the incidence of mental and behavioral disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic in Penza Oblast

Abstract

An analysis of the trend of overall and primary incidence of mental and behavioral disorders, including those caused by the use of psychoactive substances, in different age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic in Penza Oblast. The data were obtained from statistical report №12 for Penza Oblast. These included the overall and primary incidence of mental and behavioral disorders (MBD), as well as substance use-related MBD (MBDSUR), as calculated per 100.000 people for the period 2015 to 2022. The period 2015 to 2019 was the reference period and 2020 to 2022 was the pandemic period. The calculation was carried out by age groups: children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-17 years), adults (over 18 years), adults over working age (from 55 years for women and from 60 years for men). Statistical processing of the results included regression analysis, calculation of incidence forecast for 2023-2025, and assessment of the significance of the changes using the t-criterion. The decrease in the overall incidence of MBD in adults was highly deterministic (R2=0.82; p=0.012) and significant between 2017-2018 (p=0.009), 2018-2019 (p=0.001) and 2019-2020 (p=0.004). High determination with a logarithmic trend line was characteristic of almost all models, except for the primary incidence of MBD in children and overall incidence of MBDSUR in adults over working age, including after 2020. Among adolescents, the overall incidence of MBDSUR decreased significantly from 2015 to 2022 (p=0.042). There was no significant increase in the incidence of MBD, including MBDURS, during the pandemic. At the same time, there was a trend towards the decrease in adults, as well as the increase in the primary incidence of MBD in children and the overall incidence of MBDSUR in adults over working age, which determines the need for further identification of risk factors and development of specific rehabilitation measures for patients in these groups.