Trends in Russia’s GDP Growth under Environmental Constraints

Abstract

The paper illustrates an approach to GDP growth in the context of an ecological economy. The subject of the research is the establishment of the interdependence of the state of the ecology of the environment and the results of human activity. The aim of the study is to determine the presence or absence of a relationship between pollutants in each type of environmental pollutants and the level of economic development of the country, represented by GDP per capita indicators. The relevance of the study is due to the ecologically unbalanced growth of GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in disproportions between the volume of pollutants emitted by the extractive, processing, processing, agricultural and infrastructure sectors of the economy, and the conditions of human life due to the deterioration of the “ecological quality” of the environment, which limits the possibilities for further development of human capital. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of economic and mathematical models, methods, and numerical algorithms for assessing and analyzing the state of air, water, and environmental pollution under the influence of the country’s economic growth. Methods used: empirical and statistical analysis, building regression models, algorithmic and predictions, building time trends, etc. The authors based the methodology of substantiating the method for assessing the environmental constraints on GDP growth on an empirical study of the state of the environment and the state of the Russian economy in 2000–2018. Results: the authors have determined a set of indicators reflecting the state and trends of changes in environmental pollutants in Russia (carbon dioxide emissions, wastewater, production, and consumption waste) and their interdependence with economic development, which predetermine long-term social, environmental, and energy consequences. An algorithm has been developed to substantiate environmental restrictions on Russia’s GDP growth in the period 2000–2018. The algorithm is based on a modified Kaya equation, through which the relationship between each type of pollutant and indicators of GDP per capita, energy resources, and industrial production is checked. In accordance with GDP growth, the forecast of environmental restrictions was developed according to scenarios of 10–40% and showed the inevitability of implementing a plan to prevent environmental pollution in Russia. It is concluded that Russia must promote environmental and low-carbon policies, reduce emissions, waste, and energy consumption over the next few decades to achieve sustainable development. The country is faced with the task of moving away from a nature-destroying economy, thereby saving natural capital, minimizing the costs of eliminating the negative environmental consequences of technogenic economic development in the future.