Trends in Road Traffic Injuries Mortality in India: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021.

Abstract

Road traffic injury (RTI) is one of the most common causes of accidental deaths in India. The study investigates the changes in trends in age-standardised RTI mortality rates in India by sex and age groups, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The trend segments are estimated from 1990 to 2021 employing a joinpoint regression model. Additionally, the influence of age, time period, and birth cohort on mortality rate trends was assessed using the age-period-cohort model. Over the past 32 years, the RTI mortality rates have experienced multiple trend segments. RTI mortality rate in the ≤ 14-year-old population has declined remarkably, dropping from 5.71 (4.65 to 6.88) per lakh population in 1990 to 3.66 (3.01 to 4.35) per lakh population in 2010, and further declining to 1.98 (1.65 to 2.37) per lakh population in 2021. The study found a positive correlation between RTI mortality rates and age, with rates consistently lower for women compared to men across all age groups. The variation in RTI mortality rates across Indian states has widened over time, with the coefficient of variation increasing from 30.58% in 1990 to 32.36% in 2010, and further to 35.11% in 2021. Despite efforts, Indian states are unlikely to achieve the goal of halving RTI deaths by 2030, based on 2010 levels. To address this, road conditions and road safety policies aimed at preventing the incidence of RTIs should be further intensified.