Abstract
Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers worldwide, and its incidence is increasing. The aim of this study was to examine the time trends in the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer for the period of 1998–2015 for the first time in Lithuania by sex, age, subsite, and stage. Methods: This study was based on all cases (deaths) of pancreatic cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2015. Age-standardized incidence (mortality) rates and group-specific rates were calculated for each sex using the direct method (European Standard). TNM classification-based information reported to the cancer registry was grouped into three categories: (1) localized cancer: T1-3/N0/M0; (2) cancer with regional metastasis: any 1-3/N+/M0; (3) advanced cancer: any T/any N/M+. Joinpoint regression was used to provide annual percentage changes (APCs) and to detect points in time where statistically significant changes in the trends occurred. Results: Overall, 8514 pancreatic cancer cases (4364 in men and 3150 in women) were diagnosed and 7684 persons died from cancer of the pancreas. Pancreatic cancer incidence rates were considerably lower for women than for men, with a female:male ratio of 1:2. Incidence rates changed during the study period from 14.2 in 1998 to 15.0/100,000 in the year 2015 in men, and from 6.7 to 9.8/100,000 in women. Incidence rates over the study period were stable for men (APC = 0.1%) and increasing for women by 1.1% per year. Similarly, mortality rates increased in women by 0.9% per year, and were stable in men. During the study period, incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were close. For the entire study period, rates increased significantly in the 50–74 years age group; only cancer of the head of pancreas showed a decline by 0.9%, while tail and not-specified pancreatic cancer incidence increased by 11.4% and 4.51%, respectively. Conclusions: The increasing pancreatic cancer incidence trend in the Lithuanian population may be related to the prevalence of its main risk factors (smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diet, and diabetes).
Highlights
During the study period in Lithuania, 8514 pancreatic cancer cases (4364 in men and 4150 in women) were diagnosed and 7684 persons died from cancer of the pancreas
Pancreatic cancer incidence rates were considerably lower for women than for men, with a female:male ratio of 1:2
Incidence rates over the study period were stable for men (APC = 0.1%) and increasing for women by 1.1% per year (Figure 1)
Summary
In 2020, pancreas cancer was the 12th most common cancer with 495,000 new cases worldwide [1]. Almost half of new cases (47%) were registered in Asia and 28% in Europe. GLOBOCAN estimated that in 20 years, pancreatic cancer rates will increase by 70% with. Pancreatic cancer is one of the most devastating malignancies, with an incidence equaling mortality, and has the lowest 5-year survival proportion. The 5year survival rate has increased throughout the years; for example, in the USA, it increased from 2.0% to 9.2% from 1975 to 2011. More than 50% of new cases are diagnosed
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