Trends in Manufacturer-Reported Nicotine Yields in Cigarettes Sold in the United States, 2013-2016.

Abstract

IntroductionA gradual reduction of cigarette nicotine content to nonaddictive levels has been proposed as an endgame strategy to accelerate declines in combustible tobacco smoking. We assessed manufacturer-reported nicotine yield in cigarettes sold in the United States from 2013 to 2016.MethodsWe merged machine-measured nicotine yield in cigarette smoke and pack characteristics obtained from reports filed by tobacco manufacturers with the Federal Trade Commission for 2013–2016 with monthly Nielsen data on US cigarette sales. Manufacturer-reported, sales-weighted, average annual nicotine yield was assessed, as were nicotine yield sales trends by quartile: markedly low (0.10–0.60 mg/stick), low (0.61–0.80 mg/stick), moderate (0.81–0.90 mg/stick), and high (0.91–3.00 mg/stick). Trends in overall, menthol, and nonmenthol pack sales, by nicotine yield quartiles over the study period and by year, were determined by using Joinpoint regression.ResultsDuring 2013–2016, average annual sales-weighted nicotine yield for all cigarettes increased from 0.903 mg/stick (95% CI, 0.882–0.925) in 2013 to 0.938 mg/stick (95% CI, 0.915–0.962) in 2016 (P < .05). For menthol cigarettes, yield increased from 0.943 mg/stick in 2013 (95% CI, 0.909–0.977) to 1.037 mg/stick in 2016 (95% CI, 0.993–1.081), increasing 0.2% each month (P < .05). Most pack sales occurred among high (41.5%) and low (30.7%) nicotine yield quartiles. Cigarette sales for the markedly low quartile decreased by an average of 0.4% each month during 2013–2016 (P < .05).ConclusionDuring 2013–2016, manufacturer-reported, sales-weighted nicotine yield in cigarettes increased, most notably for menthol cigarettes. Continued monitoring of nicotine yield and content in cigarettes can inform tobacco control strategies.