Abstract
BackgroundSuccessfully increasing cycling across a broad range of the population would confer important health benefits, but many potential cyclists are deterred by fears about traffic danger. Media coverage of road traffic crashes may reinforce this perception. As part of a wider effort to model the system dynamics of urban cycling, in this paper we examined how media coverage of cyclist fatalities in London changed across a period when the prevalence of cycling doubled. We compared this with changes in the coverage of motorcyclist fatalities as a control group. MethodsPolice records of traffic crashes (STATS19) were used to identify all cyclist and motorcyclist fatalities in London between 1992 and 2012. We searched electronic archives of London's largest local newspaper to identify relevant articles (January 1992–April 2014), and sought to identify which police-reported fatalities received any media coverage. We repeated this in three smaller English cities. ResultsAcross the period when cycling trips doubled in London, the proportion of fatalities covered in the local media increased from 6% in 1992–1994 to 75% in 2010–2012. By contrast, the coverage of motorcyclist fatalities remained low (4% in 1992–1994 versus 5% in 2010–2012; p=0.007 for interaction between mode and time period). Comparisons with other English cities suggested that the changes observed in London might not occur in smaller cities with lower absolute numbers of crashes, as in these settings fatalities are almost always covered regardless of mode share (79–100% coverage for both cyclist and motorcyclist fatalities). ConclusionIn large cities, an increase in the popularity (and therefore ‘newsworthiness’) of cycling may increase the propensity of the media to cover cyclist fatalities. This has the potential to give the public the impression that cycling has become more dangerous, and thereby initiate a negative feedback loop that dampens down further increases in cycling. Understanding these complex roles of the media in shaping cycling trends may help identify effective policy levers to achieve sustained growth in cycling.
Highlights
IntroductionLater research suggests that second-level agenda-setting may be at work, in defining how these issues are conceived (e.g. whether cycling is considered ‘dangerous’ or ‘trendy’) (McCombs and Stroud, 2014)
The health benefits of cycling are well established (Lindsay et al, 2011; Woodcock et al, 2013; Pucher et al, 2010), with the physical activity benefits substantially outweighing the injury and air Abbreviation: CI, confidence interval. ∗ Corresponding author at: Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin 9056, New Zealand.A
Within the boundary of our model about urban cycling, our aim was to examine whether this change in the prevalence of cycling was associated with changes in the proportion of cyclist fatalities covered by London’s largest local newspaper, and in the amount of coverage per fatality
Summary
Later research suggests that second-level agenda-setting may be at work, in defining how these issues are conceived (e.g. whether cycling is considered ‘dangerous’ or ‘trendy’) (McCombs and Stroud, 2014) This opinion-forming role may be important with respect to coverage of cycling fatalities and serious injuries, because such incidents occur comparatively rarely and so are not directly experienced by most people on a regular basis. In the context of low levels of cycling, the absolute number of cycling deaths and injuries is low enough to permit each incident to be reported individually This is a feature shared with aeroplane crashes, another type of risk that is overestimated by the public due to preferential media coverage (Kahneman, 2011). Understanding these complex roles of the media in shaping cycling trends may help identify effective policy levers to achieve sustained growth in cycling
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