Abstract
BackgroundWe examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices.MethodsThe data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984–2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase.ResultsNew motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.28) when gasoline prices increase.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices
Trends in new motorcycle sales and gasoline prices are highly correlated (r = 0.78), sales lagged the decrease in gasoline prices in 2006–2007
The price elasticity of gasoline prices on motorcycle sales was 1.84, which means a 10 % increase in gasoline prices is associated with a 18.4 % increase in new motorcycle sales
Summary
We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. Motorcycle safety has received much attention from both researchers and policymakers, especially because motorcycle-related fatalities and injuries are increasing in the United States at the same time that overall motor vehicle fatalities have been decreasing (National Center for Injury Prevention and Control 2012; Oster and Strong 2013). The total cost of motorcycle-related fatalities and injuries has reached US$12 billion per year (Naumann et al 2010). Motorcycles have higher crash risk than passenger cars. Motorcyclists are about 30 times more likely to die than passenger car occupants for every mile travelled (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 2012). In prior studies, increasing gasoline prices over time were associated with higher numbers of motorcyclist fatalities and injuries, possibly resulting from people substituting toward motorcycling from other motor
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
