Trends in District Elections

Abstract

The Scottish district elections held in May 1992 took place in an unusual political atmosphere. Just a month before, in April, the general election had produced a major upset in Scotland. In the light of the apparent decline in Conservative support in Scotland since the previous general election, and on the basis of opinion polls during the general election campaign, many commentators had confidently predicted that the Conservatives would lose further ground and that Labour and the SNP would make gains. In the event, as Table 1 shows, Scotland did not become a Tory-free' zone, as some had predicted. On thecontrary, the Conservatives increased their share of the vote as compared with 1987 (+1.7%) while Labour's declined by 3.4 points; the Liberal Democrats' share fell sharply and, although the SNP advanced to 21.5%, this was not as good a performance as had been predicted and was not enough to give the SNP any more seats. The only seat to change hands compared with the general election of 1987 (Aberdeen South) was taken by the Conservatives from Labour.