Trends in clinical workload in UK primary care 2005-2019.

Abstract

Substantial increases in UK consulting rates, mean consultation duration and clinical workload were observed between 2007 and 2014. No analysis of more recent trends in clinical workload has been published to date. This study updates and builds on previous research, identifying underlying changes in population morbidity levels affecting demand for primary health care. To describe the changes in clinical workload in UK primary care since 2005. Retrospective cohort study. Over 500 million anonymised electronic health records were obtained from IQVIA Medical Research Data to examine consulting rates with GPs and practice nurses together with the duration of these consultations to determine total patient-level workload per person-year. Age-standardised mean GP direct (face-to-face and telephone) consulting rates fell steadily by 2.0% a year from 2014 to 2019. Between 2005 and 2019 mean GP direct consulting rates fell by 5.8% overall whereas mean workload per person-year increased by 25.8%, due in part to a 36.9% increase in mean consultation duration. Indirect GP workload almost tripled over the fifteen years, contributing to a 48.3% increase in overall clinical workload per person-year. The proportion of the study population with two or more serious chronic conditions increased from 22.5% to 31.6%, accounting for almost 55.0% of total clinical workload in 2019. Findings show sustained increases in consulting rates, consultation duration and clinical workload until 2014. From 2015, however, rising demand for healthcare and a larger administrative workload have led to capacity constraints as the system nears saturation.