Trends and scenarios in public health in the UK

Abstract

This chapter considers the nature of future public health challenges in the UK based on an assessment of the socio-economic and demographic context that determines health and disease. It explores the lessons and implications arising from: past trends in social, economic, and demographic influences on health (including social and health policy developments); current trends in health behaviour risk factors and mortality across social groups; and demographic shifts relating to life expectancy, particularly at middle age. It argues that understanding of future public health challenges will require extending the scope of the evidence base. Further evidence is needed to understand more precisely the interrelationship between key elements of the social context and behavioural risk factors, and health outcomes. Public health strategies that focus solely on behavioural risk factors are unlikely to be effective in securing future health improvement and reductions in health inequalities.