Trend of gastric cancer incidence and death rate in adolescents and young adults: A retrospective cohort study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Abstract

Less attentions are paid into the adolescents and young adults (AYAs) diagnosed with gastric cancer (GC). Our study aims to explore incidence rate trend, death rate trend, and prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in AYAs with GC. A retrospective cohort study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was performed. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for incidence and death rate trends. Prognostic factors for OS and CSS were investigated using Cox proportional hazard model and gray test, respectively, with results shown as hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI. Although no statistical significance, incidence rate trend showed a tendency to an increase in AYAs (AAPC=0.2, 95% CI: -0.2-0.6). All-cause death rate trends were declined both in AYAs and middle-aged and elderly people (MAEP), with AAPC value of -0.6 (95% CI: -0.8 to -0.5) and -0.5 (95% CI: -0.6 to -0.4), respectively. AYAs had a lower risk of all-cause death (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.84-0.90) but a higher risk of GC-specific death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07-1.15) than MAEP. Chemotherapy (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.16-1.40) and intraoperative radiation (HR: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.13-7.37) were, respectively, identified as risk factors for worse OS and CSS in AYAs. AYAs had a higher risk of GC-specific death, indicating more attention should be paid into AYAs with GC.