Trend detection in rainfall and evaluation of standardized precipitation index as a drought assessment index for rice–wheat productivity over IGR in India

Abstract

AbstractThe frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts over the Indo‐Gangetic Region (IGR) of India pertaining to the rice crop during kharif season (June to July to October to November) and the wheat crop during the rabi season (November to December to March) were assessed using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The monthly distribution of rainfall is more crucial than the cumulative seasonal rainfall on rice–wheat (RW) productivity. Consequently, an attempt was made to measure the effectiveness of using monthly SPI from June to September to assess drought on RW productivity over five major RW growing states of IGR in India. An attempt is also made to test the use of monthly SPI for the early kharif rice and rabi wheat forecasts for these states. The long‐term (1906–2005) mean annual rainfall of IGR is 1099.1 mm with a standard deviation of 115.7 mm and a coefficient of variation of 10.5%. It was observed that the kharif rice productivity index and monthly SPI from June to September have a significant (R2 = 0.44) multiple regression at 0.001 level over IGR. It was also observed that in the Indo‐Gangetic Region, the wheat productivity index and monthly SPI (June to September) have an insignificant (R2 = 0.21) multiple regression. It indicated that the monthly distribution of monsoon rainfall in terms of the SPI accounted for 44% yield variability in rice and 21% yield variability in wheat. Thus, these indices may be used for forecasting the productivity of the RW system over IGR states in India. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society