Abstract
Abstract This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall variability, trend patterns, and projected changes using GCM CCSM4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The historical rainfall variability (1971–2018), trend, and magnitude were assessed using Mann–Kendall and Spearman's Rho. In addition, to downscale GCMs data of precipitation at the regional level of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the SDSM conditional sub-model was applied. The monthly Mann–Kendall and Spearman's Rho trend test results revealed that most of the meteorological stations located in the northeastern mountains recorded a decreasing trend while Parachinar observed an increasing trend in almost all months except December. The trend results for seasonal rainfall showed a decreasing trend in winter, spring, and summer in the north and northeastern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa whereas an increasing trend was observed in all seasons at Parachinar. The RCP4.5 projections depicted an increase in precipitation especially in the monsoon-dominating regions in comparison to the western disturbances, while decreasing rainfall projection was observed in RCP8.5. The projections for the summer and winter seasons depicted an increasing trend until the mid-century but in the latter half, a decline is registered. Such seasonal changes may initially cause flooding followed by drought, which calls for effective water management strategies.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.