Abstract
With global warming, the frequency of drought in China is gradually increasing. The study of drought characteristics and its impact on crop yield is of great significance to ecological construction and food security. Based on the SPEI index in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020, the changing characteristics of drought and their responses to meteorological yield of three kinds of crops (cotton, wheat and corn) were analyzed. The results revealed that the SPEI in Xinjiang exhibited a decreasing trend. Drought occurred less during 1961–1996 and mainly occurred during 1997–2020. The annual variation trend of SPEI decreased regionally, and the arid trend increased from northwest to southeast. The seasonal variation in SPEI displayed an increasing trend only in winter, but a decreasing trend in spring, summer and autumn. The decreasing trend of the SPEI index in spring accounted for 90.91%, mainly distributed in the central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in summer accounted for 81.82%, mainly located in the eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in autumn accounted for 84.85%, mainly located in the south and central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in winter accounted for only 33.33%, mainly located in the southwest, central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the per unit area yield of the three kinds of crops showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01). The meteorological yield of cotton showed an increasing trend, while that of wheat and corn showed a decreasing trend. Correlation analysis of climatic yield and SPEI, and regression analysis of standardized climatic yield residuals and SPEI in different seasons revealed that drought in spring and autumn had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of cotton, while drought in spring and summer had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of wheat and corn.
Highlights
Accepted: 10 December 2021Drought is an extreme climate event characterized by a long period of reduced precipitation over months to years [1]
90.91%, mainly distributed in the central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in summer accounted for 81.82%, mainly located in the eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in autumn accounted for 84.85%, mainly located in the south and central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the decreasing trend in winter accounted for only 33.33%, mainly located in the southwest, central and eastern part of Xinjiang; the per unit area yield of the three kinds of crops showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01)
Correlation analysis of climatic yield and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and regression analysis of standardized climatic yield residuals and SPEI in different seasons revealed that drought in spring and autumn had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of cotton, while drought in spring and summer had the greatest effect on the meteorological yield of wheat and corn
Summary
Accepted: 10 December 2021Drought is an extreme climate event characterized by a long period of reduced precipitation over months to years [1]. Drought, a complex natural disaster, has been occurring with increasing frequency throughout the country, and its duration has been gradually lengthening, causing serious impacts to the environment, society and economy [2]. Low precipitation and high evaporation are the direct causes of drought. The abnormal atmospheric circulation and increased rainstorms and soil erosion can all cause drought [3,4,5,6]. China is a big agricultural country, and agriculture is the foundation of its national economy, while drought is the main restrictive factor affecting the agricultural economy [7]. Drought accounts for the largest proportion of natural disasters in China on average every year, accounting for 55% of the total affected area.
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