Tree-ring-based reconstruction of larch budmoth outbreaks in the Central Italian Alps since 1774 CE

Abstract

The larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn. - LBM) offers a unique example of cyclic fluctuations in insect populations. During regular LBM mass outbreaks, defoliation of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) subalpine trees results in distinct ring-width reductions in the host trees. Although several observations, reconstructions and models suggest that LBM outbreaks travel from the southwest to the northeast along the Alpine arc, gaps in the underlying data still hamper our mechanistic understanding of the spatio-temporal system dynamics. Evidence of historical LBM outbreaks before 1964 is generally associated with uncertainty and is particularly scarce for the Central Italian Alps. Here, we introduce four new larch ring-width chronologies from Val di Sole in the Central Italian Alps and use time-series analyses and comparisons with non-host trees (Picea abies Karst.) to reconstruct LBM mass outbreaks. We identify distinct fingerprints of 15 spatially-synchronized LBM events that occurred between 1774 and 1964 CE. Our results are important for improving qualitative space-time models to simulate travelling wave dynamics of insect populations, and for correcting ring-width-based summer temperature reconstructions from this part of the Alpine arc.