Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study.

Abstract

To determine whether pro-social treatment change in sexual offenders would predict reductions in recidivism beyond static and dynamic risk factors measured at pretreatment and whether different methods for assessing change based on self-reports and structured clinical rating systems would show convergent validity. We compared 3 methods for assessing treatment change with a sample of adult male sexual offenders against children (n = 218) who completed a prison-based cognitive-behavioral treatment program between 1993 and 2000. The methods were measures of change derived from offender self-reports on a psychometric battery administered both pre- and posttreatment, change across treatment on the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version (VRS:SO; Olver, Wong, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2007), and posttreatment ratings on the Standard Goal Attainment Scaling for Sex Offenders (SGAS; Hogue, 1994). Offenders were followed up for an average of 12.24 years after release. All measures of treatment gain were positively correlated, and all significantly predicted reductions in sexual recidivism, with values for the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from .66 (SGAS) to .70 (VRS:SO). Survival analyses showed that measures of change based on the psychometric battery significantly predicted recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic factors measured at pretreatment, while results for the VRS:SO were similar but failed to reach significance. Measures of treatment change based on offender self-reports and structured clinical rating systems show convergent and predictive validity, which suggests that effective treatment that targets dynamic risk factors leads to a reduction in sexual recidivism.