Abstract
The Alpine fault, one of the major fault systems in New Zealand, extends over 600 km in the South Island. There is a high probability of a rupture in the next 50 years, meaning that the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within our, or our children’s, lifetime. This is predicted to result in severe damage to the built environment, especially to infrastructure. To estimate the performance of the road network impacted by an Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 earthquake scenario, this research developed a generalizable methodology to simulate post-disaster transportation impacts on a large regional road network. This included the base model development and model calibration, as well as validation in a post-disaster situation. Post-disaster corridor and district trip analyses were undertaken using the outputs of the dynamic assignment, including mean travel time, total travel time, total travelled distance, and flow. The result of corridor analysis shows the significant increase in flow and total travel time on SH1 between Marlborough and SH7, and SH6 connecting Nelson to Marlborough one day and one week after the impact. The trip analysis of one day, one week, six months, and beyond six months after the earthquake indicates that around 2.02%, 1.16%, 0.39%, and 0.13% of total trips, respectively, cannot occur due to accessibility issues. Almost all of the inter-district trips from the three main impacted districts, namely Buller, Westland, and Grey, would be cancelled for at least one week after the earthquake with the impact on operational performance still ongoing. Trips that can occur typically face a significant increase in travelled distance and, consequently, travel time. The outputs from this model will provide emergency response and transportation organisations with critical information regarding the performance of the network following an Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 earthquake.
Published Version
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