Transport scenarios for China and the role of electric vehicles under global 2 °C/1.5 °C targets

Abstract

Globally 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming targets by 2100 was set up by Paris agreement, and academically supported by recently published IPCC reports. However, feasibility to realize the emission pathways to reach the targets were still under demanding from policy makers. In order to analyze the feasibility to follow the emission pathway to reach 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets, Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China (IPAC) modelling team has worked on the global emission pathway and emission scenario for China. This paper presents the scenario analysis by IPAC modelling team with focusing on energy and CO2 emission scenario from transport sector in China, under the national emission pathways to support global 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. Technologies and measures for deep cut of CO2 emission in transport sector were presented. The finding says energy and CO2 emission scenario in transport could support national 2 °C scenario, which requiring CO2 emission peak before 2030, with technology progress in transport and strong policies on public transport and non-mobility transport. However in the 1.5 °C scenario, CO2 emission from transport need to be near zero by 2050. To be such kind of deep cut of CO2 emission by 2050, electric car and other electric vehicles have to play crucial role. There is large potential for electric car in next decades in China with technology progress by following the roadmap presented in this paper.