The Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China’s Transportation Sector: A Spatial Analysis

Abstract

Studies on the CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in China are increasing, but their findings are inconclusive. The main reason is that the spatial correlation of CO2 emissions from the regional transportation sector has been ignored in examinations of the driving factors of CO2 emissions from this sector. In this paper, new emission factors are adopted to calculate the CO2 emission levels from the transportation sector in Chinese provinces. By fully considering the spatial correlation of regional CO2 emissions and based on a two-way Durbin model incorporating both spatial and temporal fixed effects, the driving factors of CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in China are studied. The CO2 and spatial regression results for the transportation sector in China suggest the following: 1) Most of the regions with the highest CO2 emissions from the Chinese transportation sector are located on the east coast; they have gradually expanded over time to include the central and western regions. 2) The CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are higher in South China than in North China, and the regions with higher CO2 emissions have gradually shifted from north to south. 3) Transportation activity intensity, urbanization level, technological level, industrial structure and per capita GDP greatly impact CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in each province of China. Among these factors, transportation activity intensity, urbanization level, and per capita GDP exert not only direct effects but also indirect effects, whereas technological level and industrial structure exert only direct effects.