Transparency and confidence-building measures for space security

Abstract

Transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) are a set of tools designed to display, predict and discipline states’ behaviour with respect to maintaining the security of space. With intentional and unintentional threats to the peaceful use of space on the rise, there is a growing international consensus on the need for greater transparency in space-related activities as well as confidence-building measures to reduce the prospects of disruption to the ever-expanding role of space in our day-to-day lives. Terrestrial TCBMs can serve as a guide to understanding what political arrangements are possible in space, including certain precedents in the areas of arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament. At the same time, current and emerging challenges in space - including orbital space debris, risk of collisions, growing saturation of the radiofrequency spectrum, the crowding of satellites in geostationary (GEO) orbit and threat of purposeful disruption - need to be evaluated in the context of unilateral, bilateral, multilateral and private initiatives to increase space situational awareness and security. This paper describes and evaluates various prospective TCBMs alongside current proposals to advance safety and security in space, including the EU Draft Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. It offers specific recommendations, arguing that Europe is uniquely qualified to negotiate a 21st century TCBM architecture thanks to its history of diplomacy and ability to identify common ground among disparate parties. This will only happen, however, with a more defined institutional design and the EU’s emergence as a global civilian leader.