Transition to a 100 % renewable power supply in galapagos islands: Long-term and short-term analysis for optimal operation and sizing of grid upgrades

Abstract

Owing to their remarkable biodiversity and endemic ecosystems, the Galapagos Islands are one of the most important World Heritage sites. However, due to their isolation and remote geographical location, around 83.6 % of the energy supply in Galapagos relies on the use of fossil fuels, which are polluting the air, the land and the sea, therefore requiring an adequate energy planning for the efficient transition towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy sources. Although there were several previous studies of the decarbonization of Galapagos’ energy supply, there is a need for a more comprehensive approach that will combine planning (long-term) and operational (short-term) analysis to evaluate both, the future investment plans and performance of evolving energy supply system, as well as to provide an in-depth evaluation of required system upgrades in terms of locally available renewable energy resources. In order to fill this gap, this paper presents results of two different studies for the optimal decarbonization and transition to a 100 % renewable energy supply of the Galapagos Islands, giving details on the development of modelling tools required for the analysis of different scenarios and various techno-economic constraints. The first study is used for a long-term for analysing and strategic planning of the energy matrix until 2050, starting from existing power plants and following projections for the deployment of new renewable-based energy generation and dedicated energy storage sources to determine the optimal sizing and timing of required grid upgrades. The second study is a short-term annual performance analysis, which considers days of minimum, average and maximum available renewable energy resources to optimize system operation with existing and additional renewable energy generation and storage sources that will minimize, or keep at a certain target level, contributions from diesel generation. The two presented studies complement each other, allowing to evaluate transition to a 100 % renewable energy supply in Galapagos from both the investment/planning perspective and from the operational point of view. The results of two studies are very close in terms of the sizes of required new PV generation and associated energy storage in Baltra-Santa Cruz islands by 2050 (around 50 MW of PV and 145 MW of storage), with the short-term study allowing to identify curtailed PV generation (on average around 140 MWh per day) as an opportunity to connect new controllable loads, and with the long-term study allowing to evaluate interim targets for decarbonization pathways to Net Zero by 2050 through the related techno-economic optimization.