Transition of dominant peak flow source from snowmelt to rainfall along the Colorado Front Range: Historical patterns, trends, and lessons from the 2013 Colorado Front Range floods

Abstract

AbstractThe Colorado Front Range has a large elevation gradient with deep seasonal snowpack in the mountains and limited snow accumulation in the foothills and plains. This study examines how the sources of annual peak flows (snowmelt, rainfall, mixed) change with the fraction of time snow persists on the ground, snow persistence (SP), and whether these sources have changed over time. Sources of peak flows for 20 gaging stations are estimated using a gridded rain and snow model forced with PRISM daily precipitation and both PRISM and TopoWx temperature. The mean snowmelt contribution to peak flow is highly correlated with SP (r2 = 0.86–0.90). Watersheds with SP < 0.3 (low snow, elevation <2000 m) are rainfall‐dominated, and watersheds with SP > 0.7 (persistent snow, elevation >3100 m) are mostly snowmelt‐dominated, with mixed sources between these thresholds. Rainfall runoff peak flows are possible at all elevations, but their likelihood declines with increasing SP. Rainfall runoff from an extreme storm in September 2013 produced the highest annual peaks at many stations, including some snowmelt‐dominated watersheds. Regional Kendall trend tests indicate that the contributions of snowmelt to peak flows and total annual inputs have declined in the mixed source zone. These changes may affect hydrographs, as analyses confirm that snowmelt runoff generally produces more attenuated peaks than rainfall runoff. Discrimination of peak flow source is sensitive to input data and model structure for mixed rain and snowmelt events, and both observation and modeling research are needed to help understand potential runoff changes in these conditions.