Abstract
Objectives: Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) is an underdeveloped approach, which is rarely applied in academic research. Based on review and synthesis, this study has been conducted to lay down a conceptual framework for TSP, so that it assists to unpack theoretical and methodological rigor of TSP. Methods: Deploying ‘theory U’, TSP is grounded in five steps: convening, observing, constructing, discovering, and acting. These steps are founded on the three building blocks-a whole system team, a strong container and a rigorous process—that produce four outputs, like understandings, relationships, intentions, and actions, which culminate in change at different levels. The conceptual framing of TSP is substantiated by the lessons of two case studies. Results: Findings indicate that deliberate transformation can occur through generating scenario insights and creating alternative environments. TSP is built on shared visioning, meaningful stakeholders’ engagement, building strong collaboration, effective policy implementation, and encouraging gradual change. Application: TSP is useful for crafting adaptive and transformative policies. Empirical research and analysis is required to formulate a well-accepted theory and methodology for TSP. Keywords: Scenario Development, Shared Visioning, Social Change, Theory U, Transformation, Transformative Policy
Highlights
Scenario planning has become more popular whenever life becomes more hectic and uncertain[1]
Transformations in social, economic and technological decisions and actions are considered the most effective to combat the impacts of climate change[20]
This study has explored the theory and practices of Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) with a view to develop a replicable method of TSP that has strong theoretical and practical bases for facilitating change and transformation
Summary
Scenario planning has become more popular whenever life becomes more hectic and uncertain[1]. Adaptive[5,6] and participatory[7,8] scenario planning tools have been employed in a plethora of cases such as environmental management[9], climate change adaptation[10], strategic business planning[11], water resource management[12], adaptive natural resource management[13], and sustainable development[14], and produced useful outputs and outcomes. Scenario planning essentially needs planner’s power-toperceive, power-to-think, and power-to-act[16]. Mapping the limitations of current practice (e.g., approaching incremental or temporary change) of scenario planning tools, literatures illustrate that these tools should be able to do better at crafting adaptive (and transformative) policies[17,18]
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