Transfer learning for neural network model in chlorophyll-a dynamics prediction.

Abstract

Neural network models have been used to predict chlorophyll-a concentration dynamics. However, as model generalization ability decreases, (i) the performance of the models gradually decreases over time; (ii) the accuracy and performance of the models need to be improved. In this study, Transfer learning (TL) is employed to optimize neural network models (including feedforward neural networks (FNN), recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long short-term memory (LTSM)) and overcome these problems. Models using TL are able to reduce the influence of mutable data distribution and enhance generalization ability. Thus, it can improve the accuracy of prediction and maintain high performance in long-term applications. Also, TL is compared with parameter norm penalties (PNP) and dropout-two other methods used to improve model generalization ability. In general, TL has a better prediction effect than PNP and dropout. All the models, including FNN with different architectures, RNN and LSTM, as well as models optimized by PNP, dropout, and TL, are applied to an estuary reservoir in eastern China to predict chlorophyll-a dynamics at 5-min intervals. According to the results of this study, (i) models with TL produce the best prediction results; (ii) the original models and the models with PNP and dropout lose their ability to predict within 3 months, while TL models retain a high prediction accuracy.