Trajectory, driving forces, and mitigation potential of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's primary aluminum industry

Abstract

As the world's largest primary aluminum producer, China's primary aluminum industry (PAI) faces a huge challenge in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, detailed research on presenting the historical trajectory of GHG emissions from China's PAI and identifying the main driving factors affecting its changes has not been completed thus far. This study quantifies the GHG emission trajectory of China's PAI from 1990 to 2018 and identifies the key driving factors affecting its changes. The results show that the total GHG emissions from China's PAI from 1990 to 2018 increased by approximately 18 times, reaching 481 Tg CO2-eq in 2018, of which 69 %, 17 %, and 14 % were electricity-related, fuel-related, and process-related, respectively. Additionally, the production activity effect is the main factor driving the increase in GHG emissions; however, the energy intensity and energy emission factor effects can effectively reduce GHG emissions. Based on this, scenario analysis is used to evaluate the GHG emission mitigation potential of China's PAI by 2030. According to our analysis, policy suggestions for mitigating the GHG emissions in China's PAI are proposed, including reducing the energy intensity, promoting clean energy use, controlling the production capacity, and decarbonizing electricity.