China

Abstract

This report summarizes the findings and recommendations of a three-year study on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China and options for abatement over the coming decades. Macroeconomic modeling results show that the continuation of rapid economic growth in China could result in a threefold increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and the year 2020. Specific measures for limiting GHG emissions are examined in detail, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid introduction of non-fossil energy technologies, afforestation for carbon sequestration, and modifications to various GHG-producing agricultural practices. In the short- to medium-term (before 2010), energy efficiency holds the greatest potential for low-cost GHG emission reduction. Over the longer term, however, the only option for China and the world is to switch to non-carbon energy sources. The study concludes that a two-pronged strategy for reducing GHG emissions in China should be adopted, whereby (i) economic reform and policy initiatives are continued for the purpose of improving resource allocation and encouraging energy conservation, and (ii) a set of priority investment and technical assistance programs are undertaken which promote the acceleration of more efficient and low-carbon technologies and which improve the institutional and human resource capacities to implement and sustain these programs.