Abstract
The equal division of tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory method, the mass moment of the TC trajectory method, and the mixed regression model method are clustering algorithms that use space and shape information from complete TC trajectories. In this article, these three clustering algorithms were applied in a TC trajectory clustering analysis to identify the TCs that affected the South China Sea (SCS) from 1949 to 2014. According to their spatial position and shape similarity, these TC trajectories were classified into five trajectory classes, including three westward straight-line movement trajectory clusters and two northward re-curving trajectory clusters. These clusters show different characteristics in their genesis position, heading, landfall location, TC intensity, lifetime and seasonality distribution. The clustering results indicate that these algorithms have different characteristics. The equal division of the trajectory method provides better clustering result generally. The approach is simple and direct, and trajectories in the same class were consistent in shape and heading. The regression mixture model algorithm has a solid theoretical mathematical foundation, and it can maintain good spatial consistency among trajectories in the class. The mass moment of the trajectory method shows overall consistency with the equal division of the trajectory method.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a type of intense atmospheric cyclonic eddy generated over warm tropical oceans [1]
The results for the mass moment of the trajectory method (Figure 2c) show the average of variance ellipses for the different element trajectories in the class, and the average ellipses provide an expression of the spatial distribution of the trajectory
The results for the mass moment of the trajectory method (6Foigf 2u2re 2c) show the average of variance ellipses for the different element trajectories in the class, and the average ellipsienstoptrhoevsiadmeeagnroeuxpp,raenssdioancloasfstnhuemspbaertiiasladssisigtrniebduatinodnsoeqf uthenettiaralljyecmtoarrky.edToasfaclcaislistaAt,ecltahses cBo, mclapsasrison amonCg, ctlhaessrDes,ualntds oclfatshs eE.three methods, classes with similar location and shape properties are sorted into the sIanmgeengerroaul,pt,haenddifafercelnatssanlguomritbhemrsisalalssoibgtaniendtahnrede scelaqsuseesntoiaf llwyemstwarakrdedstarsaicglhats-ms Aov,incglass B, classtCra,jeccltaosrsieDs,aannddtwcloascslaEss.es of northward re-curving trajectories for the TCs affecting the South China Sea (SCS)
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a type of intense atmospheric cyclonic eddy generated over warm tropical oceans [1]. They are one of the most globally devastating natural catastrophes and usually have a considerable socio-economic impact for countries in TC-prone areas [2,3,4]. Previous studies have primarily focused on WNP TCs in general [7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14], whereas relatively few studies have focused on the specific characteristics of TCs affecting the SCS. With the rapid social economic development and population growth in the areas around the SCS, it is important to gain a better understanding of how TC behaviour affects the SCS
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