Trajectories of body mass index Z-score and risk of high blood pressure in late adolescence in Suzhou children

Abstract

Objective: To identify age and gender standardized body mass index among children and adolescents and explore their associations with high blood pressure (HBP) in late adolescence. Methods: The current study was based on the Health Promotion Program for Children and Adolescents, school-based surveillance successively conducted from 2012 to 2019 in Suzhou, China. A total of 11 812 children and adolescents aged 16-18 years, who had ≥4 examination records during 2012-2018 and were also involved in a surveillance program in 2019, were included. Latent class growth mixture modeling was used to identify the BMI-Z trajectories in different genders, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the associations between different BMI-Z trajectories and risk of HBP in late adolescence. Results: Six distinct BMI-Z trajectories were determined for both genders:thin, slightly thin,standard, declining, overweight, and obese. Compared with the regular group, the obesity group had 94.0% (OR=1.94, 95%CI: 1.43-2.63) and 107.0% (OR=2.07, 95%CI: 1.33-3.22) increased risk of developing HBP in late adolescence in boys and girls, respectively. However, a neutral association was found between the descending group and HBP in late adolescence. Conclusions: Persistent obesity in children may increase the risk of HBP in their late adolescence. If an obese child restores normal weight before late adolescence, the risk of HBP may reduce.