Traffic Risk Assessment Based on Warning Data

Abstract

To address the issues of insufficient danger excavation and long data collection period in traditional traffic risk assessment methods, this paper proposes a risk assessment method based on driver’s improper driving behavior and abnormal vehicle state warning data. Meanwhile, this paper analyses the built environment’s impact on traffic risk using the spatial econometric model. Firstly, a risk assessment system with the relative incidence of driver’s improper driving behavior (eye closure, yawn, and looking away) and abnormal vehicle state (rapid acceleration, rapid deceleration, and lane departure) warnings as assessment indicators is constructed. Then, the risk responsibility weights of each warning type were determined using the entropy weight method. The risk classification thresholds were determined based on the Gaussian Mixture Model algorithm. Finally, a spatial econometric model was used to quantify the impact of built environment factors characterized by Point of Interest (POI) data on regional traffic risk, with the results of risk class classification as the dependent variable. The data of bus vehicle warnings in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, are employed as an example for validation. The geographic cell of 1 km × 1 km scale is applied as the basic risk assessment unit. The results show that the optimal risk classification threshold for road traffic risk levels I and II is 1.92, the accuracy rate of class classification is 79.3%; the optimal risk classification threshold for levels II and III is 0.75, and the accuracy rate of class classification is 83.4%. The number of residential areas, Point of Interest (POI) mixing degree, and bus stops were significantly and positively correlated with transit traffic risk. The study results provide references for developing customized accident prevention measures and the appropriate setting of urban supporting facilities.