Traffic Incident Duration Prediction Based on K-Nearest Neighbor

Abstract

Prediction of incident duration is very important in Advanced Intelligent Traffic Incident Management and the accuracy of prediction can provide exact information for travellers. It is widely used in the area of ITS. In this paper, K-Nearest neighbor (KNN) is employed to predict the incident duration, which puts forward a new distance metric and weight determination method. This KNN model is created based on the incident data set collected by DVS-Center for Transport and Navigation, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Management, the Netherlands. Moreover, a simulation based on Matlab is used for incident duration prediction and optimizing the best k value. Finally, an error analysis is made based on this simulation. As a result, this method (KNN) obtains high accuracy and has a better effect than Bayesian Decision Method-Based Tree Algorithm. So it can be effectively applied to intelligent traffic incident detection and clearance systems.