Traditie of transitie? Een cohortanalyse van de Belgische arbeidsmarkt tussen 1931 en 2002

Abstract

Tradition or transition? A cohort analysis of the Belgian labour market (1931-2002) Tradition or transition? A cohort analysis of the Belgian labour market (1931-2002) In this article, we use the retrospective labour career module of the Panel Study of Belgian Households to asses whether the Belgian labour market has seen destandardisation between 1931 and 2002. The analyses focus on cohort, period and age effects in transitions between employment states. Even though we do find indications of a more transitional labour market (TLM), these are less apparent than could be expected from TLM theory. Recent shifts in the labour market are undeniable, however the results are not clear-cut and suggest that cohort, period and age effects influence distinct transitions differently. The bulk of transitions are made at relatively young age (20 to 29). Historical changes such as the drop of female transitions into inactivity curb the trends observed. Furthermore, younger cohorts tend to have higher transition rates over their whole career. Lastly, a considerable share of the observed change is due to shifts in the female labour market participation, raising the need for a gender specific approach to the destandardisation hypothesis on the labour market.