Trade Dilemma of Global Hegemony: Analyzing the Transition in US Trade Policy from Globalization Deals to Hybrid Deals

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis framework of the trade dilemma faced by global hegemony. It argues that maintaining global hegemony and addressing domestic conflicts simultaneously is a challenging task. Since the 1980s, the United States has prioritized the expansion of transnational capital, often at the expense of domestic vulnerable industries and the interests of low-skilled workers. This unbalanced development has led to intensified social contradictions within the United States. To resolve these conflicts, the US has shifted from reciprocal globalization deals to self-interested hybrid deals, aiming to uphold the interests of transnational capital while also addressing the concerns of workers. The negotiation experiences of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) demonstrate this mode of the US trade policy. While this strategy may repair the domestic political foundation, it leads to new challenges for the US, such as discontent and resistance from the international community, or encountering difficulties in promoting cooperation with US trading partners. These challenges will pose a threat to the long-term stability of the international economic order.