Tracking the European transition from fuel dependence to sustainable mobility

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This study aims to track the EU’s shift from fuel dependence to sustainable mobility, assessing current impacts and future efforts for low- and zero-emission vehicles and renewable fuels to reduce crude hydrocarbon imports and greenhouse gas emissions. The paper uses methods of composite indices of fuel dependence and greenhouse gas emission intensity, decomposition analysis for crude hydrocarbon imports and greenhouse gas emissions, and the causal relationship between transport traffic and sustainable mobility objectives. Empirical results indicate that deploying sustainable mobility in the EU saved 10 million tons of crude oil imports and prevented 49 million tCO2eq emissions. Advancements in sustainable mobility were more effective in curbing greenhouse gas emissions (4.7%) than in reducing crude hydrocarbon imports (1.9%) from 2013 to 2022. Projections for the EU’s 2025 objectives indicate significant efforts needed to avoid an extra 61 million tCO2eq, including adding over 13 million zero-emission transport units and producing about 2 million tons of sustainable fuel. Both targets are currently at risk. The study highlights the latent potential in other hydrocarbons that can be transformed from non-fossil energy sources. Therefore, monitoring the impact of sustainable mobility is a crucial task in reducing fuel dependence and greenhouse gas emissions from transport. It enables informed decisions and strategy adaptations and ensures that environmental and economic targets are met both timely and effectively. AcknowledgmentThis article is funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine within the framework of Creation of the Production of Synthetic Liquid Fuel from Coal in Ukraine in the War and Post-War Periods project (registration number 2022.01/0061) implemented within Science for the Reconstruction of Ukraine in the War and Post-War Periods competition.