Tracking China’s CO2 emissions using Kaya-LMDI for the period 1991–2022

Abstract

The main aim of this study is to investigate how the different drivers regulating incremental CO2 emissions have evolved in China over seven five-year plans (1991–2022). The study also examines how these different drivers’ (including population, economic development, energy intensity, share of renewable energy and its productivity, and carbon intensity) regulating of CO2 emissions have changed. The results are obtained by employing Kaya identity and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) methodology. Additionally, the Tapio method is utilized to study the decoupling elasticity history of carbon emissions from China’s economy. The decoupling of carbon emissions from the economy due to different drivers is further investigated, and the results may inform and assist policymakers in determining environmentally sustainable policies. The results reveal that the value added of CO2 emissions reached its highest point in the 10th five-year plan (FYP) and has decreased every year thereafter. Economic factor and renewable energy share factor are the main reasons for the increase in carbon emissions. Those emissions peaked in the 11th and 12th FYPs, respectively, and have been gradually declining in subsequent years. Meanwhile, the energy intensity factor, the renewable energy utilization factor, and the carbon emission intensity factor, as the key contributors to carbon emission reduction, have made monumental contributions to carbon emission reduction. These factors reached their highest levels in the 12th and 13th FYPs, respectively. China was still in a stage of weak decoupling at this stage, but the decoupling elasticity is gradually converging to zero. On an individual basis, energy intensity, carbon intensity, renewable energy productivity, and population factor have a much greater ability to decouple than economic factor and renewable energy share factor. Some implications are offered, including the improvement of population quality, the promotion of a green and low-carbon economy, and the innovation of energy efficiency.