Towards the globally sustainable use of forestlands and wood resources: Estimating fair timber price deriving supply curves in a proven stable state

Abstract

The long–time gap between planting and harvesting in forestry obscures necessary timber prices to balance with silviculture costs and often causes disproportionate market timber prices. This discrepancy can lead to stagnant timber production in forestry countries and promote global unsustainable land use and timber production. This study presents an approach to estimate fair timber prices that ensure the economic sustainability of timber-producing forest stands. Supply curves are derived numerically under perfect competition and a proven stable forest state; thereby, the curves suggest the fair timber prices for continuously supplying a given mass. An application in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, suggested that the current timber prices are lower than those required to stably supply the current mass. The supply curves also suggested necessary timber price increments and carbon prices to ensure the current supply without subsidy. Furthermore, the need for selecting timber-producing forest stands to stabilize forest management was indicated.