Toward the Development of an Impact-Based Decision Support Tool for Surface-Transportation Hazards. Part I: Tying Weather Variables to Road Hazards and Quantifying Impacts

Abstract

Abstract Development of an impact-based decision support forecasting tool for surface-transportation hazards requires consideration for what impacts the product is intended to capture and how to scale forecast information to impacts to then categorize impact severity. In this first part of the series, we discuss the motivation and intent of such a product, in addition to outlining the approach we take to leverage existing and new research to develop the product. Traffic disruptions (e.g., crashes, increased travel times, roadway restrictions, or closures) are the intended impacts, where impact severity levels are intended to scale to reflect the increasing severity of adverse driving conditions that can correlate with a need for enhanced mitigation efforts by motorists and/or transportation agencies (e.g., slowing down, avoiding travel, and imposing roadway restrictions or closures). Previous research on how weather and road conditions impact transportation and novel research herein to create a metric for crash impact based on precipitation type and local hour of the day are both intended to help scale weather forecasts to impacts. Impact severity classifications can ultimately be determined through consideration of any thresholds used by transportation agencies, in conjunction with the scaling metrics. Significance Statement Weather can profoundly impact surface transportation and motorist safety. Because of this and because there are no explicit tools available to forecasters to identify and communicate potential impacts to surface transportation, there is a desire for the development of such a forecast product. However, doing so requires careful consideration for what impacts are intended to be included, how weather corresponds to impacts, and how thresholds for impact severity should be defined. In this first part of the paper series, we outline each of these aspects and present novel research and approaches for the development of an impact-based forecast product specifically tailored to surface-transportation hazards. The product is ultimately intended to improve motorist safety and mobility on roads.