Towards sustainability: The spatiotemporal patterns and influence mechanism of urban sprawl intensity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Abstract

Urban sprawl has been a great challenge to current sustainable development goals, especially in urban agglomeration areas. Based on the nighttime light and WorldPop population grid data from 2011 to 2020, this study established a multidimensional evaluation system of urban sprawl intensity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) with a "scale-density-structure" framework. The Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial Markov chain, and econometric analysis were applied to analyze urban sprawl intensity. The results suggested that: (1) the urban sprawl intensities of the cities in the YRDUA became more imbalanced over the decade; (2) the mild sprawl cities were dominant in the study area, but the moderate and severe sprawl cities were mostly located in the west and the only inland province--Anhui; (3) the spatial distribution of urban sprawl intensity indicated "club convergence" and strong spatial correlation effect, but poor stability; and (4) land resource mismatch and population urbanization were the main explanatory variables for urban sprawl intensity, with large cities more sensitive to the former, and medium cities to the latter. These findings can provide important policy implications to sustainable development and compact growth.