Abstract
AbstractA probabilistic approach to describing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), based on consideration of the signal‐to‐noise ratio for the coupled ocean‐atmosphere ENSO state, is presented. The ENSO signal is estimated using an ensemble of historical atmospheric model simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice during 1980–2016. The noise is estimated from departures of individual model realizations from their ensemble average when subjected to identical forcing. It is found that this atmospheric noise effect is substantial and yields considerable uncertainty in detecting the true coupled ENSO mode. This uncertainty exceeds analysis errors by an order of magnitude. Greater atmospheric noise is found to prevail during El Niño than La Niña, suggesting that the intensity of the monitored ENSO state during El Niño is prone to greater misattribution. Our results demonstrate that a deterministic state estimate of ENSO conditions may not be representative of the true real‐time coupled ENSO mode.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
