The impact of global warming on ENSO from the perspective of objective signals

Abstract

Most studies on the relationship between global warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rely on simulation experiments, but they have produced contradictory results, which cannot guarantee the reliability of the experimental findings. To address this challenge, we approached the issue from the perspective of objective ENSO and global warming signals. The effects of global warming on ENSO are not limited to the Earth's surface, but also present in the atmosphere. While objective monitoring indices exist for surface global warming and ENSO signals, objective ENSO and global warming signals in the atmosphere are difficult to obtain. To obtain high-precision ENSO and global warming signals in the atmosphere, we propose using the strategy of ICA (Independent Component Analysis) combined with a non-parametric method. The results of the objective ENSO and global warming signals suggest that the global warming signal leads the ENSO signal by approximately three months and exhibits a clear positive correlation with the ENSO signal, especially the occurrence of strong ENSO events is closely related to global warming, indicating that global warming promotes the occurrence of ENSO events. Under the influence of global warming, the frequency and intensity of ENSO increase, the characteristics and complexity of ENSO atmospheric teleconnections may be altered, and there is a greater tendency for more destructive El Niño events to occur. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the probability of ENSO event has increased significantly. Furthermore, moderate or strong ENSO events tend to develop earlier, and extreme ENSO events not only develop earlier but also prolong their decay phase, leading to an extended lifespan of ENSO events. This paper investigates the effect of global warming on ENSO from the perspectives of objective ENSO and global warming signals, which well supplements the objective factual basis for the previous simulation experimental studies.