Abstract
AbstractThis chapter is devoted to the presentation of a more realistic version of the model, Risk and Rumours, which extends the previous, theoretical version (Routes and Rumours) by including additional empirical and experimental information following the process described in Part II of this book. We begin by offering a reflection on the integration of the five elements of the modelling process, followed by a more detailed description of the Risk and Rumours model, and how it differs from the previous version. Subsequently, we present selected results of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, enabling us to make further inference on the information gaps and areas for potential data collection. We also present model calibration for an empirically grounded version of the model, Risk and Rumours with Reality. In that way, we can evaluate to what extent the iterative modelling process has enabled a reduction in the uncertainty of the migrant route formation. In the final part of the chapter, we reflect on the model-building process and its implementation.
Highlights
Throughout the remainder of this chapter, we present the results of following the modelling process discussed before, in the form of a more realistic and empirically grounded, yet still explanatory rather than predictive model of migration route formation
We discuss the motivation for the specific elements of the construction of the resulting Risk and Rumours model, as well as a detailed description of its constituting parts
To analyse the behaviour of the Risk and Rumours model itself, we follow the template from Chap. 5, with a few modifications
Summary
This chapter is devoted to the presentation of a more realistic version of the model, Risk and Rumours, which extends the previous, theoretical version (Routes and Rumours) by including additional empirical and experimental information following the process described in Part II of this book. We begin by offering a reflection on the integration of the five elements of the modelling process, followed by a more detailed description of the Risk and Rumours model, and how it differs from the previous version. We present model calibration for an empirically grounded version of the model, Risk and Rumours with Reality. We can evaluate to what extent the iterative modelling process has enabled a reduction in the uncertainty of the migrant route formation. In the final part of the chapter, we reflect on the model-building process and its implementation
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