Towards measurable resilience: Mapping the vulnerability of at-risk community at Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents the application of Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) to assessing the vulnerability-resilience of at-risk communities alongside of the river channels on Kelud Volcano, East Java, Indonesia. The proposed method intends to bridge the gaps between the evaluations of resilience and vulnerability particularly since the former exists concomitantly in vulnerable groups in the aftermath of a natural disaster. These gaps emerge because vulnerability and resilience are analyzed separately using single weighting indicators but lacking spatiotemporal identifiers. Historically, Kelud Volcano erupted in 1000, 1586, 1901, 1919, 1951 1966, 1990, and 2014. The eruptions were generally short-lived and at a rapid speed. They produced Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) and ashfalls, followed by dramatic lahars flowing through the river channels (Hidayati et al., 2009; Dibyosaputro et al., 2015; Nakashima et al., 2016). The hazard map of Kelud Volcano is currently available at the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), while the macro-scale risk map is accessible at the National Disaster Management Agency. Unfortunately, as yet the vulnerability map has not existed. Nevertheless, vulnerability information is integrated with hazard data as parts of disaster risk assessment and the production of macro-scale risk maps (UNISDR, 2015; UNISDR, 2017; Wilson et al., 2014). Whereas there are abundant scientific inquiries about volcanic hazard assessment, a few are about its vulnerability counterpart (Birkmann & Teichman, 2010; Jenkins et al., 2014; Hizbaron et al., 2015). The SMCE was thereby employed to 1) adjust the ill-structured theoretical foundation of vulnerability by allowing the use of abundant criteria, 2) generate the spatial characteristics of vulnerability along two different channels, i.e. Konto and Ngobo Rivers in Kediri Regency, and 3) combine the spatial and non-spatial data as the inputs of a balanced decision-making process that takes account of various plausible output scenarios. This research expressed vulnerability as the degree of potential damage or loss caused by potential disaster, which was scaled from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total damage). The results indicated that the SMCE delivered vulnerability as a function of social, economic, physical and hazard aspects that surrounded the at-risk communities. There were 34.48% out of the total 29 hamlets. Longside of Konto and Ngobo Rivers classified as highly vulnerable due to their physical aspects. Meanwhile, 54.17% out of the research area was subject to moderate vulnerability due to its social aspects, while 58.62% of it was subject to moderate vulnerability due to its economic aspects. As derived from the results, the social and economic criteria generated rather distinctive spatial characteristics. Reflecting these findings into the theoretical basis, the research expanded to the explorative possibility of vulnerability to be an indication of resilience. Resilience has been measured using various perspectives, including those that rely on the influence of social and economic aspects. Accordingly, this research argued that vulnerability assessment using SMCE, which emphasized on the combination of physical, social, and economic characteristics, might estimate the determinants of the resilience of at-risk community.