Geospatial modelling of housing rents from TOD using MGWR and implications on integrated transportation-land use planning

Abstract

Revealing the effect of transit-oriented development (TOD) on housing rents is critical for supporting transportation financing and sustainable urban development. However, existing research has not thoroughly examined the effects of land use type and TOD type on housing rents, crucially lacking geospatial modelling. This study investigates the spatial effect of TOD on housing rents using multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) and the relationship of land use type and TOD type to this effect. The results show that MGWR accurately quantifies the spatial effect. Meanwhile, the important TOD variables (integrated transit index, land use entropy, overall walkability) have positive effects on housing rents, which show spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, the premium effect of TOD station areas with a smaller proportion of residential and commercial land and a larger proportion of educational and cultural facilities is higher. Furthermore, in TOD station areas where transportation supply capacity is high but urban development is lagging, land use entropy and overall walkability have a strong influence on housing rents. Based on the study's results, we offer three recommendations for implementing TOD practices into integrated transportation and land use planning. This study renews our understanding of the outcomes of TOD both perspectively and methodologically.